COVID-19, School Closures, and Student Learning Outcomes

COVID-19, School Closures, and Student Learning Outcomes | (News and Research 370)

COVID-19, School Closures, and Student Learning Outcomes: New Global Evidence from PISA | Jakubowski, Gajderowicz, Patrinos | Worldwide school closures due to COVID-19, starting in 2020, had varying reopening timelines. Some reopened quickly, while others remained closed for an extended period. Country-specific studies indicate substantial losses, potentially costing this generation trillions in lifetime earnings. Global assessments, such as the recent OECD PISA report covering 156 million 15-year-old students, reveal significant learning declines. Analyzing test scores from 2018 to 2022, we found an average 14% drop, equivalent to seven months of learning. Longer closures, gender disparities, immigrant status, and disadvantage increased these losses. The impact suggests potential long-term national income reductions. These findings are based on assessments of 175 million students in 72 countries.

Students in schools with longer closures experienced a more significant decline in achievement. Our analysis shows that school closures resulted in learning losses, with countries facing shorter closures experiencing smaller losses (10% of a standard deviation or 5 months of learning). Those with average closures saw losses of around 13% (7 months), while countries with the longest closures experienced losses of about 20% (up to 12 months).

For boys, each week of closure led to 0.15-0.17 points decline in achievement, reaching 0.2% of a standard deviation. After approximately 40 weeks of full closures, boys’ overall learning loss matches that of girls and increases with longer closures. Immigrant students lost 0.33 points or 0.4% of a standard deviation per week of closures, with variations based on closure length.

Further analysis shows differences in learning losses based on achievement levels and country-specific closure lengths. In countries with average closures, learning loss is similar across low-, average-, and high-achieving students. However, in countries with shorter closures, top students experienced minimal loss, while average- and low-achieving students saw declines. In nations with longer closures, the best students faced larger learning losses. Those with the longest closures saw low-achieving students lose 16-17 points (20% of a standard deviation), while top achievers lost 25 points or more (29% of a standard deviation).

The variations in learning loss across achievement levels in countries with short and long closures can be linked to overall achievement differences. Analyzing the correlation between average achievement and closure length shows that countries with the longest closures tend to have lower PISA rankings, while high-ranking countries close schools for shorter periods on average. In countries with short closures and high achievement, there are greater losses among the lowest achieving students, whereas in countries with long closures and low achievement, larger losses occur among the highest achieving students.